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4 de Enero, 2008

Obama and Huckleberry Dominate Iowa Caucus

Categorized under Política Estados Unidos , Race for '08 | Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

THE SEXY AND CONCILIATORY OBAMA and the most decidely unpresidential and extremely-religious Mike Huckabee come away from the Iowa caucus with the highest numbers.

Biden and Dodd fall away, Richardson and Clinton stubbornly hang in there. (The Nezua Caucus numbers show that Clinton is out of the race, however. Or oughtta be.)

Eager GOPre-verts McCain and Romney are already gone from Iowa and scrabbling at the New Hampshire gates, betting an early start will lead to higher numbers, and ultimately a chance to captain the holed, sinking, defunct and toxic Republican party.

With all Democratic precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 38 percent of voters, compared to 30 percent for John Edwards and 29 percent for Hillary Clinton. "The numbers tell us this was a debate between change and experience, and change won," said CNN political analyst Bill Schneider. [...]

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who finished fourth, said his campaign plans to "take the fight to New Hampshire." [...]

Among Democrats, Obama took 57 percent of the under-30 vote, according to CNN's analysis of entrance polls. Speaking to supporters, Obama called the night a "defining moment in history."

"You came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents to stand up and say that we are one nation, we are one people and our time for change has come." [...]

Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, the polls indicate.

With 92 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Romney.

Fred Thompson had 13 percent, McCain had 13 percent and Ron Paul had 10 percent.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed with 4 percent.

Huckabee, Obama enjoy huge night in Iowa

Okay, obviously, I'm being a bit snarky with my saying Clinton is out. Edwards was at 30% and Hillary at 29%. And Obama at 38%. Of course, all the talk out there today is about President Obama (and The Speech), but from what little I know, this could still go either way in New Hampshire. Nothing is decided.

But I do have to say a few words on The Speech, if you will. It's getting all the Dems super excited, and pennants are waving, and lots of left-wing love is bubbling about. Digby called Obama's speech "inspiring," and for the most part, it seems The Speech is being hailed as very good and full of well...hope.

Now I have to say, I love Obama's vibe as much as anyone. Most of my blog entries on him have been positive. The man's got so much zeitgeist sparkling from his smile that he just feels like the next president. He's got vision, and he is loquacious enough to make sure we know that.

But the truth is, after a President who hunches his shoulders and juts his jaw and pounds his little paw and sulks and stammers and insults and hissyfits and has the basic international awareness of a failing sixth grader, well...the crazy old bastard in my alley who eats bread and howls at five am comes across as presidential. Cheering Obama for his verbal ability toooo much feels a bit silly at this point. It's like cheering Gnarls Barkley following Milli Vanilli up on stage. Who's not gonna start whooping loud enough (or at least try) to banish the painful memories that preceeded?

But apart from the "Inspirational We're Making History #14®" speech and the hermoso bone structure y sonrisa, I didn't much like what I actually heard from Obama in this speech, or what I feel from his general message, once you strip away the goodfeelin' phraseology. It doesn't sound like change to me. It sounds like Not Makin' Waves. And perhaps a bit of Sweepin' Under the Rug.

I know, I know! The common retort here (and I've given it myself) is that he is "just saying what he has to to get elected." (As if this is Real Change.) And for a while I have been giving him room. Because I do agree. To my mind, a black man running for President would have to appeal to that group who stands historically ready to smack him down just for being notwhite. I mean, at this point in history, for a black man or a brown man (or a woman) to be elected, there would have to be some cross-racial appeal and cross-party appeal, and I'm not against that!

But there's a fine line when it comes to compromise in the name of power. It's a dangerous game. And I understand why he'd have to play it a little, and why Hillary would have to play it a little. And why Richardson would have to play it a bit. And I have held out hope. Because Obama is offering hope to spare. Hell, even the notion of a black man in the White House absolutely resonates with hope! But let's not mistake that particular nugget of inspiring change with another huge change that, honestly, is more important to make. Let's not sublimate our hope. Let's not accept one fantastic advance in the place of a scarier and more crucial one. Anyone who reads here knows I value anyone reaching this office aside from a White Het Male! But honestly—the need for that specific change is not what is bleeding us right now.

Edwards offers me more hope as it stands with his balls-out confrontational positions. Because the real change we need to make right now is that of correcting the changes made in the last administration, and our general course regarding law and the People's rights, and corporate rape of our culture, and crimes perpetrated against other nations in the name of Terror. Those changes are the ones my eyes are on.

I am just like you, a political junkie, which basically means (to my mind, and not all the time) someone concerned with how the laws are affecting people, and what chances we have here to be happy and successful and what we are doing to others nearby and around the world, and how we are protecting those who need it, and many, many other concerns related to "politics." I'm sure not against hope! In fact, here is the tag cloud from The Unapologetic Mexican topics for 2007 that proves how damn much I have hope:

But honestly, I do not feel very hopeful knowing a potential President (molded in the Lieberman School of "BiPartisanship") wants to "get past the bickering" and the "partisanship" in DC.

Because it's not been "bickering" that has brought me to the brink of disbelieving in the USA and all she does and stands for. It's abuse. Abuse of the people here and abroad, and abuse of the laws I was raised being told were inviolate. (I had a problem with the integrity of that idea a long time ago, but hey, wouldn't ya know, I keep trying, keep hoping).

If the leader of our people, the one who takes office directly after we as The People have been abused for years and have abused others for years (vote suppression, confidential leaking to destroy political enemies, lawyergate, torture, wiretapping, Illegal bombings, Habeas Corpus, Guantanamo, and on and on and on, they have destroyed our government!!!) wants to now make friends with the party that has made it their business to champion that abuse, and "get past" the "partisanship," well, sorry. I don't have much hope in him. And I don't see myself coming round again with a whole shitload of belief in those things I was losing faith in if we are going to —once more—gloss over wrongs done with nobody concerned with meting out justice. Remember that one? Justice? All this talk of unity, not a whisper of Justice. And sure, he brings up Selma in The Speech, but it wasn't long ago that Jessie Jackson was calling him out for his reaction to Jena. Combined with everything else, even that mention feels like dressing.

Justice. We have hope. If we didn't have hope, I think many of us would have left the USA by now, one way or another. If I didn't have hope, I wouldn't even be paying attention to any of this.

Remember the pledge of Allegiance? The one I refused to say any more at 14 and was called to the office of my high school to explain why? The one that ends With Liberty and Justice for All?

If you leave out the justice yet one more time, how many more kids will refuse to chant a lie each day in the future, Obama? And how will that bring us together in this nation? We don't come together because of powerful speeches. The powerful speeches are to arise from and be given in the name of causes that bring us together. A call for hope is good. But...hope for what?

Justice. Justice is the remedy for grave breathes of trust and law and injustice, not hope. Please dispense with the generalized historical™ grandiloquence, and talk to me about some specific, concrete, and visible justice.

And as the man said, if you can't....then get out of the way. And let someone lead who is ready to do so.

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Comentarios (20)


myrna melgar dijo:

GRVTR

Oh man, Nezua you're giving me a headache. PLEASE do not compare Obama to Joe Lieberman, it's really so unfair. I'd point out that the opposite is true - there are many similarities in fact between the Lamont/Lieberman dynamic and the Obama/Clinton. Poo pooing the "what we've gotta do to get elected" while not acknowledging that the man started life as a community organizer with the IAF in the South Side of Chicago and has said, written and voted plenty that makes many of us believe that he really is an agent of progressive change is unfair.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

well, you have added fairness to the post, then!

its not unfair to compare a man who claims he was mentored by another man with that man. a man who keeps trumpeting bipartisanship and "crossing party lines" and "uniting" etc.

i'd appreciate hearing more on that. on your thoughts about this time during which we need justice, and the man is only talking about getting along. that is actually what i mean to be the core of this post. thoughts?


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

ps, my friend, "poo-pooing" does seem to be a dismissive way of avoiding talking about how a man who claims real change is using an old, old tactic—and thats giving him the benefit of the doubt, that its only a tactic—which is "saying something opposite to what i mean to get elected." i mean at best, that's not Real Change. its politics as usual. and at worst, he is saying just what he means.

i want real change, too! and i want to have hope in whomever gets elected or nominated! i do. please assume that when you read this. and i hope you can see by the links i've put up to my old posts that i've always tried to be fair with obama and still do. but i'm not ready to believe in someone just because they are a good politician or have done good work before. not at this juncture. i need to know these abuses and crimes will be addressed. and that he is brave enough to face down all the entrenched powers that stand to benefit from all this "bipartisanship unity."


mimi dijo:

GRVTR

Good food for thought Nez. And loved your imagery when pointing out anyone with half a brain, and a smidgen of conscience stands way taller than King George.

I agree we need to get beyond the bipartisan crap. Getting along is no good if it just means cowtowing to idiots. But I think Myrna's got a point in saying his experience should matter. (Of course if that was all true -- everyone would be behind Richardson, he clearly has the best "leader of the free world resume among candidates)

I haven't decided who I'll support yet. And I hate to say it but even though Richardson and Edwards are probably the best Dem candidates, tend to believe it'll be a showdown between Obama and Clinton. The truth is among this lot of candidates any dem is better than the scary GOP haters available. So, I'm going to carefully try to cast my vote for the most electable Dem.

"but i'm not ready to believe in someone just because they are a good politician or have done good work before."

A friend once told me you can't truly believe in something until you question it. And while I think you bring up valid points about his speeches calling for hope and change, but without real meat behind that -- I also think think you shouldn't dismiss "good work they've done before." His actions before he got all presidential can show a glimpse into the persona.

And for what its worth, he does seem genuine. I mean to say, he'd genuinely listen to people.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

i'm not against him. i want more than anything else to think he is just doing what he has to to get in power. and of course i agree that any dem is going to be better for the nation than the Republicans, good lord. and sure, i'm ready to support him. i am just more inspired by edwards' stance. but again, obama cant take quite the same stance.

you are right—i dont mean to simply entirely discount the past work obama's done. past work means a lot! i just meant i have real questions. and the past doesn't entirely answer them.

i prefer richardson's experience. i prefer edwards' fight and plan. i worry greatly over mushy speeches that just lift up my heart, and dont speak to events today as i see them needing to be addressed.

but if it comes down to obama vs huckabee in nov (i sort of think it will, and i sort of think obama will take it all the way) of course i'm behind obama.

but it's not over yet. obama is not promised new hampshire. and honestly, i do hope edwards takes the nomination over him. his cojones and agenda just speak more to me of concrete changes i can apply to real events in my mind.

it's really too bad all the dems aren't getting behind the same things. i miss dodd's fiery "restore the constitution" talk.


atlasien dijo:

GRVTR

Jesse Jackson's critique of Obama over his reaction to Jena was rather vague and snide, his own son publicly disagreed with him on the critique, and he backed off from it, perhaps because he correctly realized his point wasn't very strong.

I like Edwards too. But if you completely set aside their present speeches and positioning and look ONLY at their records, in elected office and out of elected office, I think Obama has the better and more well-rounded one.

When you set aside records and look only at images and current positioning... Because of race, I think Edwards can afford to seem fiery and uncompromising. Obama can't afford to.

I'd be happy to campaign for either of them. After all, Edwards is a good ol' Southern boy... and I'm saying that in totally unironic way, as another Southerner. But right now Obama has the edge for me.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

thank you for the info on jesse jackson's comment. that makes me feel better. gotta run, rest will have to wait—


Malicia dijo:

GRVTR

what would be really awesome is if Edwards won, with Richardson as the VP, and then if Richardson went on to be president. I think he is Edwards logical choice of VP, I really do.


smadin dijo:

GRVTR

I'm basically with you on all this, Nezua, so I'm afraid there may not be much content to this comment :-)

One big reason I'm more of an Edwards supporter than an Obama supporter is that I can see an Edwards/Obama ticket (and I can see it handily trouncing all Republican comers) — but I can't see an Obama/Edwards ticket. Edwards almost certainly won't take a VP candidacy spot again, and I can't say I'd blame him. And VP Obama running for the Presidency when Pres. Edwards's terms are up is more appealing to me than Freshman Senator Obama, no matter how much hope he's got. I'm from Massachusetts, and while the election of Deval Patrick, who is a close friend of, and uses very similar rhetoric to, Senator Obama, to the governorship in 2006 surely was a triumph of hope, the past year of proposal after proposal being shot down or stonewalled by an uncooperative legislature, and Patrick's apparent inability to muster any significant pressure on said legislature despite his huge grassroots support in the election, also shows that hope plus a couple bucks gets you a small coffee at Dunkin' Donuts. Of course the analogy isn't perfect: Obama's got a lot more government experience than Patrick did. On the other hand, I have no trouble believing the US Congress will be even more recalcitrant than the MA legislature, and there are harder problems to fix on the national scale than in one small, moderately liberal state on the coast.

Which is to longwindedly say, I agree, hope's good, but hope plus willingness to correctly identify the problems and fight significant opposition to fix them is better. Makes a less pithy bumper sticker, I guess.

(I'd also have loved to see Richardson do better, no doubt, and if I were the Iowa Caucus, he'd either have won, or been a close second, none of this 2% nonsense — I hope very much that he ends up offered Sec'y of State or some similarly influential position, where he could do an awful lot of good.)


dos centos dijo:

GRVTR

the republic that never happened is in a deaththrow.

bipartisan means letting the fox devour the chickens.
just like rodney king said, why cant we all get along.

well the ruling class is indifferent to us the 90% population.

obama is a corporate lackey, hillary, also.

john edwards is not the shining white knight but he
seems to scare the rulers, who do not even mention him
on cnn.
he is not dead yet.

like all the other peasants when it comes to the actual
vote, the lever will be for whoever is on the democratic
ticket.

diebold, blah, blah.

sinclair lewis was right, but mc.cain is the perfect answer.
brain damaged patriot to the death. maybe he is already dead.
he is like that funny little man with the sqaure moustache in
\defense of the 'homeland'. hmmmmm springtime for hmmm?

perfect storm to be a good german indeed.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

"maybe he is already dead"

jajajaj!


NLinStPaul dijo:

GRVTR

If what you say about Edwards being able to take the challenger stance and Obama not being able to do so is true, will we ever be in a place that a person of color who is true to their cause of justice can be elected? This is a powerful statement I think. Its not new and I think its pretty obvious...I just needed to remark on it and grieve a bit.

Perhaps Obama, even if he were to win and implement his bi-partisanship, could open the door a bit for the next person of color a little more widely. Its hard for me to balance out the priority of that over the justice we all want so badly. I guess I'm wondering outloud about a case for incrementalism. Because I like what Edwards says too - but he doesn't move the ball down the field of opening up these closed doors at all.

And I can't help but think of one of the African American women I work with who, when she overheard me and another co-worker discussing the Iowa results today, walked passed us and held her fist in the air saying "Obama!!" Only to then tell us that she still doesn't believe a black man can be elected president today in this country.

And by the way, I think Hillary sold her soul to the oligarchy a long time ago, otherwise I might be saying the same thing about her and the possibilities of a woman president.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

well, for me, i definitely think he can get elected president. in fact, were i to lay down my money, would bet most on him.

If what you say about Edwards being able to take the challenger stance and Obama not being able to do so is true, will we ever be in a place that a person of color who is true to their cause of justice can be elected?

take/not/ever...i wouldn't boil it down quite so harshly. we are moving in increments, as you say. we are. i have no doubt a black man as well as a woman will be elected president, and clearly very soon. if not now then very soon.

i may be wrong, but i read from your comment that you take the opposite position that i do. that it IS more of an advance just to have a black man as president. more so than having a wealthy president who works for the poorer, and cuts out the huge corporate interests from pulling his strings.

but that, too, is a very dichotomized and probably oversimplified frame, too. perhaps a false choice. i don't know. i don't know all of obama's record, nor edward's i wont pretend i do. or what they will do, once elected. its a tuffie. obama does present an appealing emotional and philosophical direction. yet, when i think of edwards, i think of a specific agenda that i can imagine having very specific effects upon our country. but i also have to admit i have only linmited exposure to both.

"implement his bipartisanship". i guess i'd like to know just what that means. what it would look like. because i can imagine some pretty upsetting manifestations of such an idea at this point.

i'm not expert. just thinking it out as i go.


NLinStPaul dijo:

GRVTR

I suppose my thoughts about Obama are pretty confused right now. I think it comes from comparing what I see during this campaign with what he wrote in his first book "Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance" which was written long before he started to run for the Senate, much less the presidency. The story he wrote of his life showed him to be someone who struggled with his identity in a pretty deep and honest way. And it is, like so many people of color, a complicated identity. I often wonder what's really happened for him since he wrote that. If there is any of that man left in there I wonder what he would/could do as president.


RC dijo:

GRVTR

I was a little worried that you were not going to get knee deep in the politics this year Nez, and of course, being also another hard core political junkie, disappointed about that.
But hey, we're still addicted. As a political junkie, I like your definition of the affliction. I like it a lot.
I hope you can hang on to the roller coaster this year until November. A wild ride is ahead certainly. Keep that megaphone raised to your mouth, I'm listening up and on the same ride. New Hampshire next stop.
For the junkies, it doesn't get any better than this.


nezua limón xolagrafik-jonez Author Profile Page dijo:

GRVTR

i sort of always feel a little sickly afterward. guilty, indulgent, deviant, and as if i've wasted my time. but you know. the ill feeling fades and i forget why i keep away from the stuff. and there i am, writing about the horse race again. hooked.


lovelesscynic dijo:

GRVTR

I think you said very well what I thought after hearing The Speech. I like him too, I guess. But I'm cynical enough not to have a great deal of hope in the political process or those who claim to represent us. And the whole Unity/One America thing offends the Radical POC in me.

He's better than some of the alternatives though.


Cero dijo:

GRVTR

I love the detergent bottle!


No One of Consequence dijo:

GRVTR

I have never thought that any of Obama's rhetoric carried any weight. Perhaps because I find it asthetically inane I judge its content harshly. As Nezua said -- and thank you for saying more loudly than I have been of late -- we're chock-full of fucking hope. It's the dearth of justice that's the issue. That is the bedrock concept that government is founded on. Take that away and the results are always perverse.

I have yet to hear anything that suggests that Obama is really as unselfish as we need the president to be. Anything. I've had this position since Sharpton easily outclassed him in the Democratic Convention (after which Obama took a cheap shot at Sharpton). I've always viewed Sharpton with a jaundiced eye, but he's done more for blacks, fuckups and all, than Obama has.

It should be clear to everyone that Obama is, frankly, all talk. He and Clinton are extremely similar candidates. Their agenda is very much pro-aristocracy with populist concessions thrown in to sugarcoat the continuing bonanza for Thems That Get. Edwards was a stronger candidate from jump, just like in the last election. Any time any candidate -- any -- touch an issue that no one in the media likes, that's a good sign. I don't know if Edwards can really help allieviate poverty. But it's clear he will make an attempt. Obama will make no such attempt. He hasn't the political savvy or the interest (or neither) in doing so.

Being the first black anything always has a profound cachet. Has anyone considered what the implications of electing the First Black President are if that President proceeds to do a crappy job? Think about it. We get one shot to do it right and we elect a guy who thinks just like all the rich white people we elected before. What does that say about our country? ("Our" is used loosely.)



Capsicum dijo:

GRVTR

Still catching up, and I don't want to to wear out my welcome at your casa, so I hope you'll bear with me.

I said in another thread that your words made me rethink my stance on Edwards. I've got a deep seated visceral fear/disgust/mistrust reaction to southern white males, but I've been trying to reevaluate him honestly, and I keep seeing that Edwards has been pushing Clinton and Obama to me more progressive, more leftist, more out there. His presence in the race has forced the other two to try to meet him further from the center than they would otherwise have been. That's something I wouldn't have seen if I hadn't seen your earlier post about Edwards. So thank you.


And on a more flip note: I missed eight grade graduation because my teacher finally looked up and paid attention during the Pledge and saw that I was defiantly seated and not saying a damn word, something I hadn't been doing for over a year. I've never known someone who made the same protest at the same age, and it makes me so happy to know I wasn't the only pissed off fourteen year old out there.