I wonder if this is why Hillary won in Calif.?

I think Hillary won the popular vote because more folks voted for her? Bear in mind that independent voters who wished to vote for Clinton in LA county could just as easily had their voice taken away by this balloting snafu.

The point, as I understand it, is about disenfranchisement - not about specific candidates.

Carmen's (and many other LA voters') experience is truly cause for pause. DTSers comprise a not insignificant number of voters, especially in a race as tight as this one is. It's good to read the Courage Campaign and the Secty of State are all over this. Hopefully we'll see some meaningful resolution soon.

(On the lighter side - I'll see your "double bubble trouble" and raise you one "invisible ink." Struth, mate. How fucking Marvel Comics is that?

it is widely understood, from my reading, that most independent or undeclared voters went for obama. that is where the "specific candidate" part comes in. that is cero's point. not saying that is what happened. but that is her reasoning, i'm guessing.

I wonder the same thing as Cero. It certainly had an impact: JerDewitt on Kos estimates that for the "Double Bubble Trouble" alone, counting all possible "Double Bubble" ballots could lead to a statewide shift to Obama of between 0.5% and 1.0%. In LA County the shift would be between 1.8% and 4%." My initial reaction was that he's put a plausible minimum bar, but may have underestimated it.

And that's only one of the issues. There's also the effect of the broader provisional ballot issue, and people being turned away at the polls, and the counties that ran out of paper ballots ...

One thing's for sure: it's a great chance to shine a spotlight on this whole mess. It's really disappointing that this hasn't yet made the leap to the broader political blogosphere.

Great post as always, Nezua!

jon

thank you, my man. and thanks for dropping info i did not have.

Their are similar ballot problems in the upcoming Washington State primary, affecting all parties. Based on early email returns, Travis Hay reports in Wenatchee World that in some counties 8-21% of the votes won't be counted!

If you haven't voted yet, make sure to check the box specifying what party. If you have, please follow up to make sure your vote has been recorded correctly!

"Evelyn Arnold, Chelan County auditor, said voters who think their ballot may be invalidated can check with the auditor’s office to make sure their vote will count. Arnold said voters can check the county auditor’s Web site to see if their ballot was completely filled out. Those without Internet access can call the auditor’s office and ask if their ballot was complete.

An incomplete ballot can be completed by a voter at the auditor’s office. Voters have until March 4, which is the day before the votes are certified, to complete an invalid ballot, Arnold said."

An earlier article gave estimates for 33% in rural Kitsap County, and 2% in Pierce County (Tacoma).

jon

and Nezua, my pleasure -- it's a privilege to be here!

jon

(cross-posted on All About Race, Courage Campaign, Liminal States and elsewhere)

Scott Herhold's Election snafu was obvious and avoidable in the San Jose Mercury News discusses some of the problems in Santa Clara County: poll workers had to photocopy 5,700 copies of the ballots, some of them at Kinko's!

One reason why:

There are 170,452 "decline-to-state" voters in [Santa Clara] county, 24 percent of the electorate. Under party rules, those voters are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary but not the Republican contest.

Before the election, the registrar sent out notices to the 82,000 "decline-to-state" mail-in voters, asking whether they wanted a Democratic ballot. About 21,000, roughly a quarter, eventually said yes.

They used this 25% rate to predict how many ballots they needed, as well as predicting that only 25% of the votes would be in-person. In practice, demand was much higher than expected on election day -- 45% of people voted in person. And many of the DTS voters wanted a Democratic ballot. So many sites ran out of Democratic ballots and had to photocopy them (some even at Kinkos!).

A likely conclusion from this is that most of the mail-in voters also wanted to vote for a presidential candidate, and even after they got notices, a bunch of people didn't realize they needed to reply to do this. Depending on what pecentage wanted to vote, that could easily mean another 20,000 or more voters disenfranchised.

And in any case: Kudos to Santa Clara county for following up with mail-in voters on the confusing ballots (as they're also doing in Pierce County, Washington). Shouldn't in-person voters get the same treatment?

And shouldn't people who live in LA County get the same chance to vote as people in Silicon Valley?

jon