i might still be a bit "emotionally invested." :)

I was going to say, "Hey, what about the sobriety?", but you have that covered, Nez.
A certain number of people {many of whom are POC} are not voting for Hillary no matter what pretzel logic she projects at them now. They had their button pushed and there is no reset on that thing. And quite a few others who are Obama fans and maybe not POC just don't get any charge from Hillary either. I am one of those who just never could understand how the Democratic Party could allow her to usurp the role of "anyone other than George Bush or another Republican" when her level of people who will never vote for her is sky high and always has been.
Now she has made that percentage even higher.
Obama has his problems too, mostly what appears to be a solid 18% of persons of the Democratic Party primary and caucus constituent that have been described in various places as various things, but let's just say plainly they are racist in the specific meaning of "will not vote for a black person". Their mantra is that the US is not ready for a Black President. I think this has been rated at 18% of the Democratic voting population, but I am not sure what percentage of the entire US electorate that would be, but let's extrapolate 18% just for academic purposes.
The simple math, and the voting so far, says that Hillary loses.
What happens between Obama and McCain between now and November, the effect of the War in the Middle East {soon to include Syria and Iran, at least now officially, since we have been battling them for some time now anyway}, the new and to some people unexpected food crises in the US and around the world, and the severe economic crisis that has completely overtaken the US and has been almost completely ignored by all of the candidates for the presidency are just some of the factors that will be affecting the election.
Unfortunately, other minor and ridiculous items like the Rev. Wright's opinions and Hillary's attractiveness quotient and McCain's temper will be the most reported issues and the addressing of the massive doomsday scenario facing the US will remain somehow magically isolated from the leadership contest conversations.
There is a great tragedy in store for us, even greater than the Bush years.
Those that have influence in the media {Yo, Nez!} or in the political parties have to raise their voices now or there will be no reason to bother next year.
I continue to have some small belief in the positive outcomes and probably only due to the increasing influence of the internet, a reality that exists and should be used as much as possible now, because it is a very fragile medium and could vanish overnight. Access to the net for more than 30% of humanity is very controlled and manipulated by large governments, and if more governments realize their power is threatened too, the medium will be neutered.
How about some examination of the new Farm Bill? A massive amount of ignorant policy is enshrined there. The Farm Bill is not anywhere near as exciting as Bill Clinton's commentaries or those of the Rev. Wright, is what I would I guess, since no one seems interested. Even Al Giordano over at The Field, the rural vote blog, seems to have decided to ignore the bill.
There is a very big problem in a country that is experiencing food shortages, rapid increase in government diet subsidy {food stamps} and total collapse of the economy and international diplomacy, and while this occurs, skin tone is the issue that gets examined.
I am still somewhat within the US sphere of influence as I live in a colony. But for the last two years I have sought to establish citizenship elsewhere as I genuinely fear that the Empire will go from bad to worse as it decays.
Indeed, it is doing so now.
Who will be the Ghandi that faces off the US, and what will be the Salt Tax issue? That's all we have left to watch for OR MAKE IT HAPPEN OURSELVES.

This has been bothering me as well, especially since it's often brought up not in the context of Obama as the presumed nominee but instead as problem he has address before "legitimately winning" or a question about his "electability."

It seems to me that at a very deep level, what's going on is denial of even the potential agency of blacks in the US. For example, Noam Scheiber's Electability Parsed in TNR says

In concrete terms, Hillary's primary coalition consists of working-class people, seniors, and women. Obama's consists of African-Americans, younger voters, and affluent/educated voters. Set aside African-Americans, who aren't really a swing group.

Even with this, btw, Scheiber gives the electability urge to Obama. Still, would it have killed him to acknowledge the possibility that there might be consequences from all the racially charged garbage flowing from the Clinton campaign for the last three-plus months?

In answer to your question: NOPE.

I've thought about this earlier today but had not done the arithmetic. Let's see:

In Louisiana about 35% of the electorate is Black and they will vote for Obama.

Obama won Louisiana but it was because 50% of Democrats are Black here. 25% of white Democrats voted for Obama, so that plus the 50% made for a nice win.

Republicans and some white Democrats will vote for McCain, but there may be crossover votes for Obama, so I'm guessing 25% of white voters will vote for Obama.

35% of the electorate is Black and they will vote for Obama.

If 25% of white voters vote for Obama - that would be 25% of 65% - that would be 16% of the total electorate.

35% plus 16% = 51% which would give all Louisiana electoral votes to Obama.

It really is possible.

Cero, why not just do the math on who will NOT vote for Hillary. It tells you more. I think what it comes down to now is Obama v. McCain and how dirty the Republicans want to fight. But I think we all know that answer already.
In a way, the warm-up bout between Hillary and Obama was a good preparation for the McCain rounds.
Obama will not be facing McCain, he will be facing the Fox and Limbaugh machine.
He better get really pumped up now. Those right wing whackos are fat, old and out of shape, but they can really sink their teeth into a Democrat.
Get a tetanus shot, Obama.

Here's one white middle-class Republican who favors Obama. Then there's the Rush constituency (aka "anyone but McCain") who might vote for him. Rush has already come out and said he'd even vote for Hillary rather than McCain (and he HATES her with passion). So this thing is wide open.

I think rc puts it right that PoC would and should rather stay home than vote for Hillary. If they are willing to do this to Blacks, what does that say about other groups?

And no, Black women will not be persuaded to go over to Hillary on abortion alone because many Black women are church going and conservative on the abortion issue.